Using fuzzy set theory to address the uncertainty of susceptibility to drought

This paper presents the technical aspects of a new methodology for assessing the susceptibility of society to drought. The methodology consists of a combination of inference modelling and fuzzy logic applications. Four steps are followed: (1) model input variables are selected—these variables reflect the main factors influencing susceptibility in a social group, population or region, (2) fuzzification—the uncertainties of the input variables are made explicit by representing them as ‘fuzzy membership functions’, (3) inference modelling—the input variables are used to construct a model made up of linguistic rules, and (4) defuzzification—results from the model in linguistic form are translated into numerical form, also through the use of fuzzy membership functions. The disadvantages and advantages of this methodology became apparent when it was applied to the assessment of susceptibility from three disciplinary perspectives: Disadvantages include the difficulty in validating results and the subjectivity involved with specifying fuzzy membership functions and the rules of the inference model. Advantages of the methodology are its transparency, because all model assumptions have to be made explicit in the form of inference rules; its flexibility, in that informal and expert knowledge can be incorporated through ‘fuzzy membership functions’ and through the rules in the inference model; and its versatility, since numerical data can be converted to linguistic statements and vice versa through the procedures of ‘fuzzification’ and ‘defuzzification’.     

Combined influence of food level and inoculation density on competition between <Emphasis Type="Italic">Anuraeopsis fissa</Emphasis> and <Emphasis Type="Italic">Brachionus patulus</Emphasis> or <Emphasis Type="Italic">Brachionus macracanthus</Emphasis> (Rotifera: Brachionidae)

We tested separately the effect of two taxonomically related rotifers (B. patulus and B. macracanthus) on the population dynamics of another species (A. fissa) at low (0.5 ×10 ⁶) and high food levels (1.5 × 10⁶ cells/ml of Chlorella vulgaris) using different inoculation densities (0–100%). We also quantified the impact of A. fissa on the two brachionid species. Regardless of the presence of the competing species, an increase in the availability of food led to increase in the abundances of the three rotifers. The population growth of B. patulus, B. macracanthus, or A. fissa was affected negatively when cultured together with another species. An increase in the initial density of any one of the competing species became advantageous to maintain a certain population size. At a low algal food level, B. patulus was able to suppress A. fissa more strongly than B. macracanthus. On the other hand, at a high food level, B. macracanthus suppressed the population of A. fissa more strongly than B. patulus. Peak population densities for A. fissa varied from about 150 to 1000 ind./ml, depending on food density and the presence of competitors. The rate of population increase (r) of A. fissa, B. patulus, and B. macracanthus increased with an increase in food availability but decreased with increasing initial density of the competitor. Both Brachionus spp. experienced negative growth rates in the presence of A. fissa, especially at a high initial density of the latter. Published in Russian in Ekologiya, 2007, Vol. 38, No. 5, pp. 381–390. The article was submitted by the authors in English.     

Assessment of the natural-cultural resources in Çanakkale for nature-based tourism

While the world is going into different tourism expectations, the tourism understanding in Turkey is defined as tourism in the sea-sand-sun triangle. However, it is possible to contribute to the income and local development of the indigenous people by developing nature-based tourism. Besides, with the sustainable use and preservation of the natural-cultural assets, the damage of the traditional tourism industry on the natural and cultural environment could be reduced. In this study, it is aimed to bring up the nature-based tourism concept in Çanakkale by evaluating the nature-based tourism industry in the general of Turkey and assessing the natural-cultural resources that Çanakkale comprehends. The most important areas that have a nature-based tourism potential in Çanakkale and the tourism activities that are most suitable for these areas have been determined.     

Ambient air monitoring of PCDD/Fs and co-PCBs in Gyeonggi-do, Korea

We started the monitoring for PCDD/Fs in ambient air and soil in August 2001, and co-PCBs in January 2002. Decreasing of PCDD/Fs and co-PCBs levels in ambient air were observed. The higher PCDD/Fs levels were found in winter and lower in autumn. We found that the industrial incinerators influenced the PCDD/Fs levels in ambient air. In the 2,3,7,8-substituted PCDD/Fs concentration profiles, the three major congeners occupied 67% of the total mass. In case of co-PCBs, PCB#118, #105 and #77 were observed as the main congeners. Five cluster groups discriminated by ratio of four components, O(8)CDD, 1,2,3,4,6,7,8-H(7)CDD, 1,2,3,4,6,7,8-H(7)CDF and O(8)CDF, were obtained from HCA (hierarchical cluster analysis).     

灰色协调度模型在产业用水系统分析中的应用

揭示产业用水系统的时空动态发展规律，探讨其内部的协调关系，是开展节水型社会建设规划，实现水资源可持续利用的关键。然而，目前对产业用水系统的协调性分析还缺乏较为有效的理论和方法。以往在利用协调度模型进行用水系统有序度研究时，通常采用两段叙述的线性分段函数表示，较不适用于描述产业用水系统内部要素的非线性结构。因此，针对产业用水系统的特性，利用灰关联原理建立有序度函数，以建立更适于用水系统分析的灰色协调度模型。利用该模型对上海市1997~2005年产业用水系统进行实证研究，结果显示：上海市产业用水系统基本有序，发展比较协调，其用水综合效益较大，但距离最优状态尚有潜力可挖；其中，农业用水子系统的发展较为欠缺，在未来用水规划中应予以重视。     

计算机模拟研究UO2+2在人体细胞液的形态分布

建立了由多种金属离子和小分子配体组成的多相细胞液热力学平衡模型.模拟研究了UO2 2在组织液和细胞液的形态分布及CO2-3、氨三乙酸（NTA）和乙二胺四乙酸（EDTA）浓度对细胞液中UO2 2形态分布的影响.在组织液中,正常生理pH下,当各形态UO2 2总摩尔浓度 [U]= 1.0×10-6 mol/L 或[U]=1.0×10-3 mol/L时,UO2 2均主要以[UO2(CO3)3]4-和[UO2(CO3)2]2-形态存在.在细胞液中,当[U]=1.0×10-6 mol/L时,UO2 2主要以[UO2(CO3)3]4-和[UO2(CO3)2]2-存在；当[U]=1.0×10-3 mol/L,pH为6.0～6.8时,细胞液中存在大量的固相(UO2)3(PO4)2·4H2O,当pH为6.8～7.4时,UO2 2主要以[UO2(CO3)3]4-、[UO2(CO3)2]2-和[(UO2)2CO3(OH)3]-存在.细胞液中(UO2)3(PO4)2·4H2O含量随[U]升高而增加.通过调节细胞液pH和增加细胞液CO2-3浓度均能降低其固相UO2 2配合物含量.在细胞液中增加NTA会增加(UO2)3(PO4)2·4H2O含量,当添加EDTA时会显著降低(UO2)3(PO4)2·4H2O含量.     

Exposure to radiation from global system for mobile communications at 1,800 MHz significantly changes gene expression in rat hippocampus and cortex

We have earlier shown that radio frequency electromagnetic fields can cause significant leakage of albumin through the blood–brain barrier of exposed rats as compared to non-exposed rats, and also significant neuronal damage in rat brains several weeks after a 2 h exposure to a mobile phone, at 915 MHz with a global system for mobile communications (GSM) frequency modulation, at whole-body specific absorption rate values (SAR) of 200, 20, 2, and 0.2 mW/kg. We have now studied whether 6 h of exposure to the radiation from a GSM mobile test phone at 1,800 MHz (at a whole-body SAR-value of 13 mW/kg, corresponding to a brain SAR-value of 30 mW/kg) has an effect upon the gene expression pattern in rat brain cortex and hippocampus—areas where we have observed albumin leakage from capillaries into neurons and neuronal damage. Microarray analysis of 31,099 rat genes, including splicing variants, was performed in cortex and hippocampus of 8 Fischer 344 rats, 4 animals exposed to global system for mobile communications electromagnetic fields for 6 h in an anechoic chamber, one rat at a time, and 4 controls kept as long in the same anechoic chamber without exposure, also in this case one rat at a time. Gene ontology analysis (using the gene ontology categories biological processes, molecular functions, and cell components) of the differentially expressed genes of the exposed animals versus the control group revealed the following highly significant altered gene categories in both cortex and hippocampus: extracellular region, signal transducer activity, intrinsic to membrane, and integral to membrane. The fact that most of these categories are connected with membrane functions may have a relation to our earlier observation of albumin transport through brain capillaries.